Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season/September
September 15E.NEWTON AOI: Near Mexico This AOI has been on the 5-day outlook for some time now and is still only on the 5-day outlook, but there is an AOI near Mexico that has a 0/60 chance of development. This seems like it will become Newton. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:36, August 30, 2016 (UTC) : This is one with a real chance at Newton. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for at least slow development, and I would say Newton should come by the weekend. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:06, August 31, 2016 (UTC) :: At 20% (next 48 hours) and 70% (next 5 days). Here comes Newton. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:22, September 1, 2016 (UTC) :::: This is likely to become a depression or Newton over the weekend and into next week. Hopefully it stays offshore of Mexico and doesn't recurve to a landfall. Ryan1000 03:08, September 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::: At 60/80 - Newton is arriving pretty soon! But the coast of Mexico will have to watch out... ~ Steve Chat :D 02:52, September 2, 2016 (UTC) 90E.INVEST Invested quite some time ago, but everyone's gone to focus on Hermine instead. At 80/90, but it's still having problems developing a circulation. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:40, September 4, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Fifteen-E And yet another depression forms. Forecasts call for this to become Newton before hitting Baja. Jake52 (talk) 00:24, September 5, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Newton And from a tropical depression in the first advisory to a tropical storm in the second. Newton, it must be said, is in pretty ideal conditions, and I hope that this doesn't turn too bad. It's currently not forecast to become a hurricane, although according to SHIPS, there's a 1 in 4 chance of this gaining 30kt during rapid intensification. Jake52 (talk) 03:11, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : It's got another day or so until it hits Cabo, it may intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane but I doubt it will pull something as bad as, say Odile. Still something to watch out for, since it's fairly quick formation may catch some people off guard. Ryan1000 04:10, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :As of the latest advisory, Newton is expected to peak at 70 mph, though that may change in the coming hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:20, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::Newton's new advisory strengthens it to a Category 1, like some of the models show, but the worrying detail is in the SHIPS rapid intensification odds. According to those, there's a higher than 2/3 chance of Newton hitting Baja at borderline Cat 2/Cat 3. Jake52 (talk) 16:21, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::Maybe a re-Odile isn't out of the question after all...though Newton is also picking up speed and is now moving 15 mph, so it's window of opportunity for strengthening is going down. Hopefully it doesn't peak at more than cat 1. If it does explode to a somewhat strong storm before hitting Cabo, then this could be the 4th consecutive year with an EPac name retired (well, it became a record with 2 consecutive years of it, but still). Ryan1000 18:09, September 5, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Newton sure seems to be strengthening quickly. At this rate it could be a hurricane by the next advisory. Baja California needs to prepare for this storm. This is looking a lot like Odile, and that's not good. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:18, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Newton is now 65 mph and should be a hurricane during the next couple advisories or so. This storm is giving me flashbacks to Odile. If it for some reason starts rapidly intensifying, this could be devastating for Baja. In the long run, this might bring some flooding to Arizona. This is NOT looking good. ~ Steve Chat :D 19:10, September 5, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Newton And we ALREADY have hurricane Newton (75 mph/987 mb). Newton has officially rapidly intensified. Newton keeps looking better, and it could become a category 2 or even a major at this rate. This is becoming a dangerous storm, and people are hopefully leaving NOW. Unfortunately the EPAC is not being nice to Mexico lately... ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 22:13, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : It is 85 mph now, with a pressure of 984 mbars. Newton might be a C2 in the next few hours, maybe even by the next advisory. This is sure strengthening fast... [[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely,'' IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 00:16, September 6, 2016 (UTC) ::: Now up to 90 mph, maybe major hurricane status isn't out of the question after all...but it'll make landfall sometime later today, Newton better get on with it if it wants to become a strong cat 2 or 3. Ryan1000 04:06, September 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::Happy to report that Newton's growth stunted overnight, it's still at 90 mph/80 kts and it's making landfall near Cabo as I type this. Hopefully it won't be too bad. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 10:42, September 6, 2016 (UTC) ::::::At least Newton's large size stopped it from RI'ing TOO much. However, it's large size means it will weaken less before hitting mainland Mexico. No damage is out of the question with Newton, but we can only hope not too many lives are lost... ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 12:41, September 6, 2016 (UTC) :::::::Newton looks scary. The storm's cloud mass extends from the tip of Baja all the way into Arizona and New Mexico, according to the NHC's satellite pic. Newton looks like a large flooder. I hope it didn't cause too much destruction.~ Steve Chat :D 04:04, September 7, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Newton Surprised to see no-one updated this, Newton is already dead and is currently over Arizona as a remnant low. NHC has handed responsibility over to the WPC. Unfortunately, Newton is responsible for the season's first fatalities, with 4 dead as of now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:03, September 8, 2016 (UTC) : Because advisories are still being issued on Newton (by the WPC), we'll keep him up on the storms header like we did with Hermine, since ex-Newton still poses a flood threat to the southwestern U.S. When the remnants fully dissipate, axe him. Ryan1000 00:23, September 8, 2016 (UTC) ::: And now they're gone. Ryan1000 20:33, September 8, 2016 (UTC) 92C.INVEST 92C.INVEST I'm surprised no one posted this yet, but there's an AOI south of Hawaii that's at 30% for 2 days. It probably won't become much though; Madeline, and to a Les's'''ter (lol) extent are more notable threats. 'Ryan1000' 04:54, August 30, 2016 (UTC) : This actually looks quite good now, and I think it's a tropical depression. Maybe this system will become Ulika. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:49, August 30, 2016 (UTC) :: Lol Ryan, nice pun. This has some potential to be Ulika, I would say. I hope we finally get a new named storm in the CPac! ~ Steve Chat :D 01:07, August 31, 2016 (UTC) ::: Still at 30%, but it looks better than what Atl TD 8 did yesterday. Dvorak classifications are at 2.5, which supports tropical storm intensity. ~ 'KN2731' {talk} 07:35, August 31, 2016 (UTC) :::: Back down to 20%. Not organizing and conditions are not looking too favorable. Ulika might have to wait. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:24, September 1, 2016 (UTC) AOI: About 1000 Miles South-Southwest of the Southern Tip of Baja At 10/20 but significant development seems unlikely due to upper level winds. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:27, September 1, 2016 (UTC) : This disturbance got sucked into what became Newton's circulation a while ago and is gone. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:29, September 5, 2016 (UTC) AOI: 1300 Miles WSW of Baja California This is an AOI that's been around for some time that's now in about the same place as the above AOI was, but more west. It has some opportunity to become a tropical cyclone, and has actually become organized enough for the NHC to up the odds to 30/40. This system has oddly been drifting east, but is expected to turn north and then towards the west soon. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:28, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : I see this AOI developing into Orlene during the next several days. After that, the below AOI could be Paine. The EPac keeps surprising us with above-normal activity despite the very late start. ~ Steve Chat :D 19:13, September 5, 2016 (UTC) :: 40/40 - conditions are now expected to become less favorable for development, so it now has limited time to become something. I will be mad if it stole the name "Orlene" and peaked at 40-45 mph. Best for this to remain a depression if it does develop. ~ Steve Chat :D 04:07, September 7, 2016 (UTC) ::: ...aaand this AOI is gone. ~ Steve Chat :D 02:28, September 9, 2016 (UTC) 16E.ORLENE Another AOI has been on the 5-day outlook for a while and is at 0/40. This could definitely become a named storm as well eventually. ~Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:28, September 5, 2016 (UTC) : At 0/60 and looking much better to have hurricane potential than the above AOI. The other system at 40/40 is just going to enter unfavorable conditions later this week, so I'm crossing my fingers for this to be Orlene instead of Paine. We seriously don't need another epic name-stealer from the other AOI. ~ Steve Chat :D 04:10, September 7, 2016 (UTC) :: Up to 30/80 now. This is going to develop over the next several days and should be Orlene by next week. Hoping it's a hurricane - thank god the other AOI failed to develop. :) ~ Steve Chat :D 02:31, September 9, 2016 (UTC) ::: Wow, and it now up to 70/90. Orlene is coming!!! ~ Steve Chat :D 02:28, September 10, 2016 (UTC) ::::100/100, why is it not a TD!? TG 23:57, September 10, 2016 (UTC) :::::Come on NHC - is this not a TD?! I hate it when NHC puts 100/100 instead of declaring the advisory immediately since that chance means it almost certainly WILL be a TD. >:( ~ Steve Chat :D 00:45, September 11, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Sixteen-E ...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... NO THREAT TO LAND... Also this is the earliest sixteenth EPAC depression since 1992. I think we'll have 20 storms this year. Tropical Storm Orlene Well, we have Orlene now. Holy cow...[[User:IbAHAn1829tree|''Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe!]] \[[User talk:IbAHAn1829tree|(:-D)Chat]]/''Ta ta!'' 12:56, September 11, 2016 (UTC) : Like I did with Madeline, I'm going to compare Orlene to the date we saw our 15th-named storm in the past four years: * 2012: Olivia - October 6 * 2013: Octave - October 12 * 2014: Odile - September 10 * 2015: Olaf - October 15 * 2016: Orlene - September 11. TG 19:43, September 11, 2016 (UTC) The Pacific is going fairly well-paced this year, on par with the last two seasons (though keep in mind last year the CPac had 5 storms at this point, and would go on to have 8 total). Orlene could become a cat 2 or 3 as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 20:41, September 11, 2016 (UTC) : The EPac continues to impress. I would have never expected the "O" storm this early with the very late start! :O Orlene is now set at the intensity of 50 mph and 1003 mbar, and forecast to turn into a hurricane. I hope it peaks as a Category 2 at least. ~ Steve Chat :D 21:32, September 11, 2016 (UTC) ::: Peak intensity isn't expected to be above cat 1 for now... Ryan1000 01:32, September 12, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Orlene And Orlene has become the tenth hurricane of the season, with winds of 70 knots and a minimum pressure of 990 mb, and looks on course to be the sixth major. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:09, September 12, 2016 (UTC) : Wouldn't surprise me if it does become a 3, maybe even a 4, this thing is intensifying fairly quickly. Ryan1000 09:57, September 12, 2016 (UTC) ::: Now up to 110 mph and 967 mbars. Due to become a cat 3 at any time now. Ryan1000 22:31, September 12, 2016 (UTC) ::::Down to 90 kts/971 mbar per ATCF :( Unless this pulls a Darby, our sixth EPAC major might have to wait. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:24, September 13, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It's moving slowly so Orlene is probably weakening due to upwelling over it's own churned-up waters, once it speeds up again later this week it might get stronger. Ryan1000 02:57, September 13, 2016 (UTC) :::::::The NHC just forecasts weakening throughout the rest of the forecast period; if right, our next EPac major has to wait :/ ~ Steve Chat :D 03:21, September 14, 2016 (UTC) ::::::::For what it's worth, Orlene briefly weakened to a tropical storm last night, but with the new advisory it has regained hurricane status. 70 kts/985 mbar as of 8am PDT. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 14:52, September 15, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Orlene (3rd time) First downgrade was missed. Orlene is going down against dry air, and should be gone within 24 hours unless it generates some convective bursts. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:01, September 16, 2016 (UTC) :Yeah, it's pretty much nothing but a cloud swirl right now.--Isaac829 20:55, September 16, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Orlene There it is.--Isaac829 05:24, September 17, 2016 (UTC) :I hope it gets upgraded to a major in post-analysis, it was only 5 knots away. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:19, September 17, 2016 (UTC) 17E.PAINE AOI: South-Southwest of Acapulco A brand new one has formed and is 10/60 on the TWO. This could be our next named storm over the long run. Hopefully it isn't Paineful to track (lol). ~ Steve Chat :D 03:24, September 14, 2016 (UTC) 93E.INVEST This was invested some time ago, and is now up to 60/90. Most models show this becoming a weak to moderate tropical storm, but notably the ECMWF shows this reaching extreme southern California. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:06, September 16, 2016 (UTC) : That would be unique to see in a lifetime, though forecasts over 4 days ahead are fairly unreliable; the Euro also eventually takes Karl to Bermuda as a 938 mbar category 4 storm down the road. Ryan1000 17:20, September 16, 2016 (UTC) :: At 80/90 and will be a TD and then Paine very soon. If ECMVF panned out, we could see some rainfall in our area. ~ Steve Chat :D 04:53, September 17, 2016 (UTC) :::93E is having some trouble pulling itself together, and deep convection is rather sparse and scattered. Models still show a weak tropical storm, except the ECMWF which has a minimal hurricane. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:23, September 17, 2016 (UTC) ::::At 90/90; it may be a TD by night (PDT time). ~ Steve Chat :D 00:08, September 18, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Paine The 16th named storm of the EPac season has come, in only two and a half months. That's impressive. It isn't expected to become a hurricane as it heads northwest, but the remnants of Paine could make it to northern Baja or southern California. Ryan1000 09:46, September 18, 2016 (UTC) :Paine is now expected to briefly become a hurricane by Monday (per latest NHC advisory), though a landfall by Paine as a tropical system (I mean, not extratropical or post-tropical) is still unlikely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:09, September 19, 2016 (UTC) ::It's almost a hurricane already. It might become one overnight before weakening. Paine might bring rain to my area in the long run - it's desperately needed due to the long-term drought we have been experiencing. I do not think it will make landfall while still tropical. ~ Steve Chat :D 03:38, September 19, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Paine Confirmed by NHC. Hopefully the remnant rainfall from this storm doesn't become too Paine-ful (lol) for the folks in the southwest US. Ryan1000 11:02, September 19, 2016 (UTC) :Hopefully Paine can intensify by another 5-10 knots before moving over SSTs of around 22°C (72°F) within 36 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:12, September 19, 2016 (UTC) ::Possible Paine clouds are actually now streaming into our area. By seeing the NHC's satellite pic, the clouds over Southern California are actually connected to Paine and might be a northern extension of its moisture. The current intensity is set at 90 mph and 979 mbars, and I have hope it can briefly become a C2. ~ Steve Chat :D 23:59, September 19, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Paine (2nd time) Didn't manage to reach C2 as strong shear caused the low- and mid-level circulations to decouple. Right now it's at 50 knots and 997 mb, and the tropical storm warning for Baja has been downgraded to a watch instead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:07, September 20, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Paine "...PAINE GOES AWAY..." --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:52, September 21, 2016 (UTC) : Well, although it's technically no longer a tropical cyclone, the remnants of this thing could still be fairly Paine-ful to the folks in the southwest US in a few days, like with ex-Linda last year and Norbert the year before. Ryan1000 03:30, September 21, 2016 (UTC) :: Paine brought us some clouds and moisture but all the rain remained in the mountains and mainly east of us. It won't be that Paineful I believe. (Lol) ~ Steve Chat :D 04:35, September 22, 2016 (UTC) 18E.ROSLYN AOI: 500 Miles South-Southwest of Acapulco Yet another new one has appeared on the TWO, and could be Roslyn. It is at 0/30. The EPac has been too active this year, especially with the record late start. It's insane, it might be like the basin is drunk or drinking too much energy drinks or caffeine. ~ Steve Chat :D 00:03, September 20, 2016 (UTC) :At 20/50. Roslyn should be here in a week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:11, September 20, 2016 (UTC) ::Now at 50/80. Here comes Roslyn! :) ~ Steve Chat :D 04:38, September 22, 2016 (UTC) ::Now 70/90. Here we go!! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:59, September 22, 2016 (UTC) :::This has not become any better organized during the past several hours, but Roslyn should still come in the next couple days. This is really early for an "R" storm, considering the late formation of Agatha. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:46, September 24, 2016 (UTC) ::::80/90. Apparently an upper-level low to the northeast is suppressing it at the moment. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:11, September 24, 2016 (UTC) ::::90/90. Still a bit disorganized though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:12, September 25, 2016 (UTC) 94E.INVEST Was invested a long time ago. Right now it looks like a TD, and should be declared one in an hour. If gale-force winds are found in the deep convection in the southern quadrant, then it'll be Roslyn immediately. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:59, September 25, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eighteen-E K. We have our eighteenth tropical depression of the 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Forecast to be a weak failure. *sigh* ~ Steve Chat :D 22:00, September 25, 2016 (UTC) : Meh, Roslyn-to be could have some moisture sheared from it into the southwest U.S. like Paine. Ryan1000 03:39, September 26, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Roslyn I'm actually glad that this is expected to remain weak; that'll help level the playing field with the Atlantic :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 10:57, September 26, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Roslyn Going once... going twice. What a name stealer, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:28, September 28, 2016 (UTC) Remnants of Roslyn And NHC issues its last advisory on this system. See you in 2022! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:10, September 29, 2016 (UTC) : Bye, laughable failure. XD YOU COULD NOT EVEN TRY?! ~ Steve Chat :D 01:35, September 30, 2016 (UTC) AOI: Entering the Central Pacific This one is near the CPac boundary and 20/30. Slight chance for getting Ulika here. ~ Steve Chat :D 04:38, September 22, 2016 (UTC) : No longer on the TWO. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:50, September 24, 2016 (UTC) 19E.ULIKA AOI: 1700 Miles East-Southeast of Big Island This one is at 0/30 and the outlook says that conditions could favor development over the long run. Looks like our real candidate for Ulika unless it suddenly develops before entering the CPac (which is totally unlikely). ~ Steve Chat :D 01:50, September 24, 2016 (UTC) 96E.INVEST Well, it could, since it's forecast to turn northwards along the EPac-CPac boundary. Right now it's at 10/50, and has been invested. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:01, September 25, 2016 (UTC) : I still think Ulika is more likely to come from this than Seymour (assuming 18-E is named). It would have to quickly organize to be named before reaching the CPac. This really does have potential to be our second CPac storm, much less active than last year for sure. ~ Steve Chat :D 22:04, September 25, 2016 (UTC) ::: This probably won't do much, Hawaii is protected by their ridge and this will be a fish if it becomes anything at all. Ryan1000 03:42, September 26, 2016 (UTC) ::::70/80, and we may have something like Ela last year if it becomes a TD before crossing 140°W. Right now it's quasi-stationary at about 139°W. I hope it continues moving west for some time though, since the dry air to the north will probably kill it. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:25, September 26, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Now numbered just east of 140 west. It could become either Seymour or Ulika, depending on how far west it goes before becoming a TS. Ryan1000 19:51, September 26, 2016 (UTC) :Crossed over 140W with the latest advisory, so Ulika seems more likely as of now. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 23:02, September 26, 2016 (UTC) Now, if I'm getting the 5-day right, the prediction is for this one storm to: *Become named off of the CPac list, becoming Ulika (and thus joining storms like Li, Lana, Iniki, and Ela to start as an EPac depression and then get a CPac name), then, *Cross into the EPac, becoming the third storm from the CPac to do so, the second with a CPac name (after Ema) and the second after Olaf to start in the EPac and cross back over. After which, *It, just before dissipating, crosses 140E AGAIN, becoming (I believe) the second storm on record to cross the basin line three separate times (after Patsy). If it actually pulls that off, Ulika can get away with being merely 40mph, because that's not a fail in my book. Jake52 (talk) 23:12, September 26, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ulika Named by CPHC. The long streak of absence of CPac named storms has come to an end, after Pali formed in January.~ KN2731 {talk} 10:03, September 27, 2016 (UTC) : Would be neat if Ulika crosses back to the EPac and back over a few times, and better, it's not affecting land. I'm not sure if Patsy crossed the dateline 3 times or just twice from CPac to WPac, but if Ulika does it from EPac to CPac, that would be a record. Ryan1000 13:45, September 27, 2016 (UTC) Hurricane Ulika Ulika has officially rapidly intensified, going from a 35-knot TS to a 65-knot hurricane. It has potential to intensify a bit more before conditions become unfavourable in about 12 hours, and crosses back into the CPac. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:59, September 28, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ulika (2nd time) NHC: "...ULIKA BECOMES LESS ORGANIZED... ...WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM..." Ulika weakens to 70 mph. End of forecast says Ulika will be post-tropical by Saturday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:33, September 28, 2016 (UTC) :Current advisory places it at 139.7E and the next will be issued by the CPHC. If Ulika stays intact for six hours, it's done it! Jake52 (talk) 15:05, September 29, 2016 (UTC) ::It has done it. Newest advisory gives Ulika an intensity of 40 mph and 1006 mbars, and a position of 140.2W. It is just really rare for a storm to: 1.) Form as a tropical depression in the EPac, 2.) Be named in the CPac, 3.) Cross back into the EPac, and 4.) Cross again into the CPac. This is seeming like a CPac-EPac version of Patsy, as both have crossed a basin line multiple times. Ulika is now just about dying, with the forecast killing the storm overnight. The RI earlier was a little shocking. Incredible stunts, Ulika. :D ~ Steve Chat :D 01:24, September 30, 2016 (UTC) Remnants of Ulika And it's done for. ~ Steve Chat :D 03:19, October 1, 2016 (UTC) 97E.INVEST This one is already invested according to TropicalTidbits. The NHC gives a 20/30 chance of development, but upper-level winds and cooler waters make it very unlikely that this will be Seymour. ~ Steve Chat :D 01:28, September 30, 2016 (UTC) : Down to 10/10. Nothing is coming here, while we continue to be extremely focused on a monster Category 5 that is surprising us and being scary. That storm is also known as Matthew. ~ Steve Chat :D 03:22, October 1, 2016 (UTC) : Now gone from the TWO. NHC says that tropical cyclone development in the eastern Pacific is not expected in the next 48 hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:15, October 3, 2016 (UTC)